Everything you need to know about DUEL

DUEL is a stock comparison tool based on 8 fundamental factors from SEC data. Unlike absolute scoring, DUEL uses relative comparison — meaning each factor is normalized between the two stocks. This eliminates bias and reveals who is objectively better across multiple dimensions. It's like a boxing match for stocks: only one winner.

DUEL DCF is our proprietary multi-factor Discounted Cash Flow model available only to PRO users.

Why is it unique and interesting for investors?
• Uses only real SEC EDGAR data (no analyst estimates)
• Incorporates earnings quality via Sloan Ratio adjustment
• Applies ROIC and FCF Margin quality multipliers
• Smart WACC calculation based on company's ROIC tier
• Conservative 3-year explicit forecast + Gordon terminal value
• Built-in fallbacks and safeguards against bad data

How should you look at our DCF?
Treat it as a high-quality relative valuation tool and sanity check. Compare DCF prices between two companies in a duel — this shows which one the model believes has more intrinsic value. Use it together with the duel score for a complete picture: relative strength + absolute valuation estimate.

It is not a precise "fair value" prediction, but one of the most transparent and data-driven automated DCF models available to retail investors.

Use the DUEL DCF model as a complementary tool, not a standalone decision-maker.

Practical steps:
1. Run a DUEL between two stocks to see the relative winner (the "duel score").
2. Export the DCF report (PRO) for both companies.
3. Compare the fair price estimates (T0, T+1, T+2, T+3) and the Enterprise Value.
4. Look at the growth assumptions (Sloan penalty, ROIC multiplier, FCF margin multiplier) — they show how the model adjusts for quality.
5. Use the price projection chart to visualise the expected price trajectory.
6. Cross-check with the duel winner: if the same company wins on both relative fundamentals and DCF valuation, that strengthens the signal.

When is it most useful?
• When comparing two companies in the same sector
• When you want a transparent, data-backed valuation without manual spreadsheet work
• When you need a quick sanity check before deeper research

Remember: No model is perfect. The DUEL DCF is designed to be consistent, transparent, and fully automated — giving you a reliable starting point for your own investment thesis.

The DUEL Resilience Report (STR) is a PRO-exclusive PDF report that answers one key question: how financially resilient is this company right now?

While the Battle Report tells you who wins the duel and the DCF Report tells you what the company might be worth, the STR Report tells you how safe the business foundations are — independently of market price or growth expectations.

What is the Fundamental Resilience Index (FRI)?
The FRI is a score from 0 to 100 that summarises the financial resilience of a company. It is calculated from 4 core metrics, then adjusted for internal contradictions (penalties).

• 70–100: HIGH RESILIENCE — The company generates strong cash flows, covers its debt comfortably, and its earnings are backed by real cash.
• 40–69: MODERATE RESILIENCE — Acceptable financial health, but some areas require monitoring.
• 0–39: LOW RESILIENCE — Significant financial stress signals. Requires careful additional research before investing.

The 4 core metrics explained:
1. Cash-to-Debt Coverage = (Cash + CFO) / Total Debt
Measures how many times the company can cover its total debt using available cash and operating cash flow. Above 1.0x means the company can theoretically repay all debt from cash on hand plus one year of cash flow. Below 0.5x is a warning sign.

2. Investment Self-Sufficiency = FCF / CAPEX
Measures whether the company generates enough free cash flow to fund its own capital expenditures. Above 1.0x means the company does not need external financing to maintain and grow its business. Below 0.5x means it relies heavily on debt or equity issuance.

3. Earnings Quality Ratio = CFO / Operating Income
Compares cash flow from operations to accounting operating income. Above 1.0x means cash profits exceed accounting profits — a positive sign. Below 0.8x suggests that a significant portion of reported profit is not yet converted to cash, which can be a red flag.

4. Liquidity Runway = Cash / Annual Burn Rate
Estimates how many years the company can sustain operations from its cash reserves if cash generation deteriorates. Above 3 years is strong. Below 1 year signals potential liquidity risk.

The Consistency Matrix — what are the traffic light checks?
The STR report also runs three internal consistency checks. These detect situations where different metrics contradict each other — which can signal hidden risks even when individual numbers look good:
• Growth vs FCF: Is the company growing fast but generating little or negative free cash flow? This can mean growth is being funded unsustainably.
• ROIC vs Sloan Ratio: Is ROIC high but Sloan Ratio also elevated? This may indicate that high returns are partly driven by accounting accruals rather than real cash.
• Debt vs Cash: Is debt high relative to equity while cash coverage is low? This combination signals a potential debt trap.

Each check returns OK (green), CAUTION (yellow), or RISK (red). A RISK flag reduces the FRI score by 10 points; CAUTION by 5 points.

How to use the STR Report in practice:
1. Run a duel and export the STR Report (PRO button).
2. Compare the FRI scores of both companies side by side.
3. A company with a higher duel score but a low FRI may be winning on growth metrics while carrying hidden financial risk.
4. A company with a lower duel score but a high FRI may be more conservative but financially rock-solid.
5. The ideal combination: wins the duel AND has a high FRI AND the DCF shows positive fair value.

What makes STR unique?
All data comes exclusively from SEC EDGAR filings. No analyst estimates. No third-party adjustments. The FRI algorithm is deterministic — the same inputs always produce the same output — making it fully transparent and reproducible. The Consistency Matrix is particularly rare: most retail tools show metrics in isolation; STR cross-checks them against each other to surface hidden contradictions.

Important note: STR is a financial resilience assessment, not a buy or sell signal. A low FRI does not mean a stock will fall. A high FRI does not mean a stock will rise. It tells you about the structural safety of the business — use it as one layer of analysis alongside the duel score and DCF report.

Banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions use a fundamentally different accounting structure — and this affects how DUEL reads their data.

Why banking sector data looks different:
Traditional companies have a clear separation between their operating activities (selling products/services) and financing activities (borrowing money). For banks, borrowing and lending is the core business — so this separation does not exist in the same way.

Specifically:
• Revenue: Banks report net interest income, fee income, and trading income — not a single "Revenue" line that maps directly to the standard XBRL tag DUEL uses. This can result in revenue appearing as zero or unusually low.
• Operating Cash Flow (CFO): For banks, CFO includes massive fluctuations from loan originations, deposits, and securities trading. A bank can show negative CFO simply because it issued more loans this quarter — which is actually a sign of business growth, not weakness.
• Capital Expenditures (CAPEX): Banks have minimal physical CAPEX compared to industrial companies, making FCF margin calculations less meaningful.
• Debt: For banks, deposits are technically "liabilities" — meaning a bank with millions of customer deposits will show enormous "debt" that is completely normal and not a risk indicator.
• Debt / Equity: Customer deposits appear as liabilities, so Debt/Equity looks artificially high for banks and is not a clean risk signal.

What this means for DUEL scores in banking:
DUEL is optimised for non-financial companies (technology, consumer goods, industrials, healthcare, energy, etc.). When you duel two banks against each other, the scores and metrics are still internally consistent — both companies are treated the same way — so the relative comparison remains valid.

However, the absolute metric values (especially CFO, FCF Margin, and Debt/Equity) may look unusual compared to non-financial companies. The STR Resilience Report metrics may also behave differently for banks for the same reasons.

Our recommendation for banking sector analysis:
• Use DUEL to compare two banks against each other — the relative comparison is still valid and meaningful.
• Focus on Revenue Growth, ROIC, Operating Margin, and Sloan Ratio — these translate better to banking.
• Treat FCF Margin, Cash-to-Debt Coverage, and Debt/Equity with caution for banks.
• For deep bank analysis, supplement DUEL with specialised banking metrics: Net Interest Margin (NIM), Tier 1 Capital Ratio, Return on Assets (ROA), and Loan-to-Deposit Ratio.

This is not a limitation of DUEL's data quality — it is a structural characteristic of financial sector accounting. The same situation applies to insurance companies, REITs, and other financial institutions. DUEL clearly indicates the data source and date for every metric so you always know what you are looking at.

For each factor, DUEL compares the two stocks head-to-head using a soft relative score: the larger the gap on that metric, the more of the factor weight the leader receives. A narrow gap stays close to a draw on that factor; a wide gap approaches a full win. Missing data still scores 0.35 vs 0.65. The final result is the weighted sum of all factors. This is fairer than absolute scoring — and fairer than winner-takes-all on every line.

After every duel DUEL shows a Relative Price Chart — the price of Ticker 1 divided by the price of Ticker 2. This is the purest expression of relative strength: one line that answers only one question — who is winning right now in the market?

The chart includes a simple 50-day Moving Average (MA 50). It is not hype and not a prediction tool. It is pure mathematics of relative movement, the natural next layer after the 8 SEC factors.

What the crossovers mean in practice

On a normal single-stock chart a crossover with MA 50 shows the trend of one company. On the ratio chart (Ticker1 / Ticker2) the same crossover generates a completely different signal:

1. Cross from below (ratio breaks above MA 50)
Ticker 1 has become stronger than Ticker 2. From this point Ticker 1 is expected either to rise faster than its opponent (bull market) or to fall more slowly (bear market). This is a clean relative-strength signal.

2. Cross from above (ratio breaks below MA 50)
Ticker 2 has taken the lead. The period of dominance of the first ticker is over. Capital is rotating toward the second name.

The main danger — the “saw” (false breakouts)
When both stocks move almost in perfect sync (for example two commodity producers during stable prices), the ratio becomes a flat line and starts crossing MA 50 back and forth. In this phase the crossovers are noise. Do not act on them.

Two simple filters that keep the system clean
1. Wait for confirmation: do not react to a wick. Wait until the candle closes above/below MA 50 and the next candle confirms the move.
2. Watch the slope of MA 50 itself. The strongest signal occurs when the ratio crosses MA 50 and at the same time the MA 50 line turns in the direction of the breakout.

This layer stays true to the DUEL philosophy: relative only, no forecasts, pure math. The 8 SEC factors tell you who is fundamentally stronger. The ratio chart tells you whether the market already agrees.

After every duel DUEL shows a Sector Positioning Map — a two-axis chart of companies from the same GICS sector.

X — Sustainable Growth: Revenue Growth × ROIC multiplier (high ROIC lifts growth; weak or negative ROIC pulls it down).
Y — Quality-Adjusted Cash Margin: Op. Cash Margin × Sloan multiplier (strong cash earnings quality lifts the point; elevated accruals pull it down).
Point color — Debt / Equity: no D/E or non-positive equity → yellow (caution); D/E ≤ 0.50 → green; 0.50–1.50 → grey; D/E > 1.50 → red. Active duel tickers use the same color rules — only larger markers and always-visible labels.

Peers come from a short-lived positioning cache refreshed when those tickers are duelled. Pure relative SEC math for context — not a price target, ranking, or trade signal.

Informational flags only — they never change the duel score or weights. They highlight tension between the three margin metrics and leverage.

Triggers:
• Paper profits — Op. Cash Margin < Operating Margin × 0.7 (cash conversion lags reported operating profit).
• CapEx vacuum — FCF Margin < Op. Cash Margin × 0.3 (little free cash left after reinvestment).
• No safety cushion — FCF Margin < 0 and Debt/Equity > 1.5 (negative free cash with high leverage).
• Non-positive equity — book equity ≤ 0, so Debt/Equity is not computed (often large buybacks or accumulated deficit).

UI: yellow frame = margin warnings only; red frame = Non-positive equity and/or No safety cushion (risk). Several flags can appear for the same ticker.

Read them with the raw factor values and the Sector Map point color. They answer “where does the story conflict?”, not “who won the duel?”.

Δ prior is the change vs the previous same-type SEC report — informational only; it does not change the duel score.

For each of the 8 factors, DUEL stores a short history (at most two snapshots per ticker and period type: annual Y or quarterly Q). When a newer filing of the same type arrives, the UI can show the difference: current value − previous value.

Rules:
• Compare Y to Y or Q to Q only — never mix annual and quarterly.
• No prior snapshot yet → blank (not a zero).
• Tiny moves are hidden (noise filter).
• Shown to 1 decimal on both sides of the factor row; raw levels stay as usual (% one decimal, Debt/Equity and Asset Turnover two decimals).
• For Sloan Ratio and Debt / Equity (lower is better), color is inverted: a decrease is green, an increase is red.

Δ prior answers “did this metric improve or worsen since the last comparable report?” — not “who won the duel.”

Capital Allocation shows where free cash went over the last three annual 10-K years — informational only; it does not change the duel score.

After a duel, open the block between Share and the Relative Price Chart and press Show capital allocation. Figures are in USD billions, from annual 10-K only (not 10-Q), so seasonal noise is excluded.

Why this table is mathematically closed
Every row is either a cash source, a cash use, or a balance check. Nothing extra is added; nothing material is omitted for the “how did FCF get spent?” question.

Row by row (top → bottom):
• Free Cash Flow (FCF) — cash generated by the business after CAPEX (CFO − CAPEX). R&D is not subtracted here: it is operating expense and already reduced CFO earlier.
• Dividends — cash returned to shareholders as dividends (outflow, shown negative).
• Buybacks — cash used to repurchase shares (outflow).
• Acquisitions (M&A) — cash paid for businesses, net of cash acquired when the SEC tag allows (outflow).
• Share issuance — cash in from selling shares (inflow, positive). Employee option accounting is not treated as a cash raise.
• Net debt change — change in interest-bearing debt. Paying down debt uses cash (negative); raising debt adds cash (positive).
• Change in cash — year-over-year change in the cash pile.
• Cash balance (end) — cash at year-end. Identity check: prior-year cash + Change in cash ≈ current Cash balance (e.g. NVDA: 8.59 + 2.02 = 10.61).

What a dash (—) means
A dash is usually no reported activity for that line in that year (no dividend, no buyback, no material M&A, no equity raise) — not a broken feed. True missing tags are rare; the same line may still fill for the peer company.

Free vs PRO
Free users see FCF and Cash balance for all three years, plus a PRO banner for the middle lines. PRO (and admin) see the full allocation path and short signals (e.g. cash burner, runway, dilutive issuance).

Use it with the duel factors and Δ prior: factors answer “who is stronger on quality metrics?”; capital allocation answers “what did they do with the cash?”

Cross-Report Verdict is a PRO-only table that shows how six analytical lenses agree or conflict — not a single 0–100 score.

After a duel, open the block below Capital Allocation and press Show cross-report verdict. The table does not change the duel score, weights, or PDF factor tables.

Six independent lenses:
• Relative strength — the duel integer scores for the pair.
• Earnings quality — informational flags (paper profits, CapEx vacuum, no safety cushion, non-positive equity) plus Sloan bands; Clean or Risk with a short reason.
• Resilience — the same Fundamental Resilience Index (FRI) logic as the STR report: bands ≥70 High, ≥40 Moderate, else Low.
• Cash stewardship — latest free-cash path from Capital Allocation (and duel FCF margin as a cross-check): Strong / Neutral / Weak.
• Trajectory — majority direction of noticeable Δ prior moves (Sloan and Debt/Equity inverted), or a dash when no prior snapshot exists.
• Balance-sheet stress — OK / Elevated / Structural from Debt/Equity and equity/cushion flags.

Pattern is derived, not scored: Aligned, Mixed, or Divergent, with a short plain-language narrative.

Read it next to the factor breakdown, flags, Δ prior, sector map, and Capital Allocation. The verdict highlights agreement or conflict; it does not replace any of those views.

Eight factors, each with a weight. You can adjust these weights in PRO mode.

All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR — the official US Securities and Exchange Commission database. DUEL uses the latest 10-K (annual) and 10-Q (quarterly) filings. Data is cached for 6 hours to ensure fast loading while staying fresh. When a new quarterly report is released, DUEL automatically picks it up.

PRO gives you full control:
• Custom weights — Adjust the importance of each factor. This is powerful: you can overweight Revenue Growth if you're a growth investor, or ROIC if you prefer capital efficiency.
• PDF export — Download a professional report of your duel.
• Unlimited duels — No daily limit.
• DCF Valuation — Get a full multi‑factor discounted cash flow report for both companies (available in PRO).
• Resilience Report (STR) — Export the Fundamental Resilience Index report with FRI score, cash coverage metrics, and the Consistency Matrix traffic-light system (available in PRO).

PRO access lives in your browser as a session cookie — there is no login account.

After payment, PRO is activated for 30 days in the browser that completed the purchase. DUEL does not create password accounts.

Rules:
• Do not clear cookies for duelstocks.com while PRO is active. Deleting site cookies removes the PRO token and access ends immediately.
• Clearing cache (or a normal hard refresh) is safe — it does not remove the PRO cookie.
• If you need a clean browser: clear cookies before you subscribe, or wait until the paid period ends, then clear and re-subscribe. Do not clear cookies mid-subscription if you want to keep access.
• PRO is monthly only (no annual plan) because access is cookie-bound to the browser that paid. Monthly renewal keeps that model simple and transparent.

By using the service you accept that loss of PRO caused by clearing cookies, switching devices/browsers, or private/incognito modes that discard cookies is under your control. We cannot restore a cookie deleted on your device. See also the Terms of Service.

The PRO PDF Report is a professional, printable version of the duel.

It includes:

• Winner and final score
• Factor comparison table with period markers (Y = Annual, Q = Quarterly)
• Detailed Calculation Details with all formulas and raw numbers
• Warnings when data was adjusted for fair comparison

How to read it:

• Check the winner and strength first
• Look at the table to see who wins each factor
• Go to Calculation Details to see the actual numbers and dates used
• Pay attention to (Y) and (Q) markers and any "adjusted" notes

Tip: Export multiple duels and compare the PDFs side by side for better analysis.

In PRO mode, sliders appear below the ticker inputs. Move each slider to adjust the weight of the corresponding factor — but the sum must equal exactly 100%, otherwise the calculation automatically falls back to the default (base) weights.

Tip: If you're a growth investor — increase Revenue Growth. If you care about cash flow — increase FCF Margin. If you're a value investor — increase ROIC and Operating Margin. The algorithm will recalculate the duel instantly based on your preferences.

↓ Download Investor Profiles & Custom Weights (PDF)

Yes. All data is from SEC filings — the most reliable source for public company financials. No third-party data providers, no estimates. Just raw, audited numbers. The algorithm is transparent, and you can see the raw numbers for every factor in the breakdown.

Sometimes a company doesn't report a particular metric (e.g., some companies don't report operating income). In that case, DUEL gives that factor a 0.35 vs 0.65 score in favor of the company that does report it. This encourages transparency and penalizes companies that hide data. In PRO mode, you can adjust the weight of that factor to minimize its impact.

DUEL automatically fetches the latest available SEC filing (10-K or 10-Q). When a company releases a new quarterly report, the data updates automatically. The cache expires after 6 hours, so you're always seeing the most recent data.

No. DUEL is a comparison tool, not an investment advisor. It helps you understand which company is stronger across fundamental metrics, but it doesn't consider price, valuation, or market timing. Always do your own research before investing.

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